Tuesday, 26 August 2014

Two new positions taken

I took a position on two new set of options. The first one is Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (FOLD). I had taken a small stab at it before and had bought one call option with a $5 strike just recently. So this isn't exactly new but for the blog itself, it's new. I actually added 4 more to make a total of 5 contracts at the $5 strike, set to expire in October. Not really sure how high this stock will go but the trend looks to be going up. Of course I could just as easily be seeing things as I'm still new to following a trend. I also used part of the CAN SLIM formula when making the decision to enter this trade. I saw a small W pattern on the 90 day chart and a cup with handle on the 5 day chart. Might not make a huge profit but we'll see. Setting the stop loss point at $5. So if it goes below $5 per share, I'm cutting losses and dropping it.

The other position I took is actually a put option. This will be my first put options so I won't be surprised if I lose out on this. I found the stock by reading an article on Seeking Alpha and decided to look into things. I decided to look into this position based somewhat on their ads and how it seemed so much like a scam. As I looked at other things about it including their fundamentals, it just felt weird for a company like this to be priced so high when profits were so low. Not to mention that after that big drop followed by a big jump, the trend seems to be taking it down. How low is it going to go? I don't really know. But I took 5 contracts in an Out of the Money put option with the strike price of $47.50 and set to expire in January 2015. That gives them two more ERs to show whether they'll go back up or drop further. I'm setting the stop loss point for this at $55 a share. If it hits or goes higher than $55 a share, I'll cut losses and drop it.

Here's to experimentation! Capitalism, Ho!

Friday, 22 August 2014

Exit, stage right on AAPL

Today, I decided to exit on my long call position on AAPL. Was it a bit premature? Yes, probably it was. But the future of AAPL is starting to look a bit dubious now. I'm having trouble seeing it's trend right now and am not sure of it's market direction. So decided to follow one of the rules I set for myself and exit due to uncertainty.

Took a small profit. Whether I'll increase my position in BBRY or add more to GTAT or even hold it as cash to re-enter AAPL or another market, is still up in the air. Might sit on the cash for a bit and see what happens. Another option is to get on the put side for AAPL.

Thursday, 21 August 2014

Updating my exit points

Time to update my exit points based on current market performance.

First will be for Apple. The exit point for Apple is going up to $99. If it can't stay above that mark, it might be a better idea to get out and watch or go with a put order. I don't see it going this low yet though as it's still an overall bull market.

Next up is GTAT. For this, I am bumping the exit point to $16 a share. It feels like a better stop loss point for it. Don't see this reaching this low either unless Apple screws them over. In which case, it would be better to short both.

Blackberry exit point is going up to $9 a share. It's crept up past $10 a share now without going below $9.25. I see this as a good sign as it means that it can continue up the path of least resistance. Which seems to be up.

Need to keep an eye on the indexes too. Who knows when a bear will pop out of hibernation.

Wednesday, 20 August 2014

GTAT going long

Took a long position on GTAT recently. It's been getting some notice due to Apple's rise in share price recently. I noticed the current trend was headed up a bit. Decided to take a gamble that this will head above $20 a share if Apple releases info on what they're going to do with the sapphire glass from GTAT.

From what I read, this company also has two other projects they've been working on that shows promise. Unfortunately, showing promise is not the same as results.

For that reason, I'm placing an exit point if their share price goes below $15 a share. Either way, I will sell it shortly after their next ER. How soon after depends on whether it was a positive report or a negative one.

Friday, 8 August 2014

Exit point

This is mostly a reminder of when to exit my long call options to limit my losses. For AAPL, if the share price goes below $90. This means the trend for it might have reversed and is on its way down.

For BBRY, I'm setting the exit point at $8 per share. If it actually goes down that low, something is definitely wrong. So if it goes below $8/share, sell the shares.

Hopefully they don't go that low but I feel like we're entering into a small bearish trend. So if they go that low, time to reverse positions and short em.

Friday, 1 August 2014

Trend reversals: BBRY and AAPL

While I've been reading a lot of people saying that AAPL is going to go to $110 or $120 or whatever, I'm starting to notice that it might not be the case. If what I've been learning about following trends is right, it seems that AAPL might currently be near the top of its trend. The game changer for whether it goes past $100 or not will really depend on their sale of the iPhone 6. No one is likely to know how well it will sell until their Earnings Report for their 4th quarter. If they can manage to sell 30m or more iPhone 6 handsets, I can see the trend continuing up. Hard to tell what the mindset of most people in the US is like in regards to the iPhone 6 but what I've been hearing here in Toronto is very little interest to upgrade. Especially since there does not seem to be a major improvement over the iPhone 5s. I can see the trend reversing though if they don't manage to meet sales expectations or at least for there to be a drawdown.

Either way, I'll be selling my Call Option on it in October, shortly after their ER.

Now for BBRY. Right now, the trend seems to be going slowly up. Ever since the change of management that brought John Chen in, the trend seems to have reversed. This might be mostly due to the expectations people have of John Chen as he had been successful in turning around Sybase or it could be due to what he has actually done. I don't know much about fundamentals to be honest. But I do know that the difference in loss of revenue in their last two ER, was a large difference. But whether the trend will keep going up or not for BBRY will really rely on their next ER (possibly the one after). If they show a profit in revenue, the trend will go up more clearly. If another loss, there's a chance for it to go down.

Although I have a Call Option that expires on January 2015, whether I sell earlier or not really depends on their next ER. Especially since it will have an effect on the direction of BBRY's trend. I expect it to be positive though due to the upcoming releases planned.

Edit: I added to my Blackberry position by buying 5 more Call Options contracts. Figured I'll take advantage of the small drawdown.