Thursday, 24 July 2014

Going in Long!

Before I go into more details, going Long in investing means that you're expecting the share prices (SP) to go up. Meaning this is the typical stance of buy low, sell high. The opposite is to go Short, which is sell high, buy low.

With that out of the way, I've decided to take up Long positions in both AAPL and BBRY now. I took two Call Options contracts on them with 5 contracts in AAPL and 30 in BBRY. I expect AAPL to give me a profit of about $1000-2000 before expiration and BBRY to give me at least $10,000 profit before expiration. Oddly enough, even though many people would think that AAPL is the safer company, what I've been seeing suggests that I am more likely to achieve better profit through BBRY.

My reasoning for that is due to the Z3 and I think it was Z10 too, flying off the shelves in India and Indonesia. I've also been seeing Z10s from people in my workplace. Some of whom are in the enterprise field and have 2 phones. Some of them were praising the Z10 with claims that the Z30 was better while others seem to have gotten their Blackberry more recently. Either way, things seem to be shifting back to Blackberry. At least outside of the US.

As for AAPL, there's a lot of controversy and uncertainty in the direction they're headed. Part of me feels like they're disregarding the consumers that make them money but it is possible that they're simply looking for better methods to deliver the same level of quality they've been giving so far. I'm mostly hoping the Joint Venture with IBM will bear fruit before my AAPL option expires.

Thursday, 17 July 2014

Today, I let fear take control of my actions

Decided to start this up again to keep track of my mistakes. I figure that if I write them down, I'll be less likely to make them again.

My first mistake since I started investing was letting my own personal hopes get in the way of my decision making. I lost around $1500. Learned a lot from that first mistake. This was quite a while ago but I still remember some of the lessons I learned from this mistake. One of those things is to check the details about the company in regards to their fundamentals, finances, and future plans.

My second mistake was a bit more recent. I let my fears get to me. I did my due diligence on Blackberry (BBRY, BB.TO) so I know that they're set for at least some growth. I also know that it's going to happen as I can actually see Blackberry trading at $30-40 a share in 3-5 years. But I let my fear get to me from what people were saying about the Apple/IBM alliance and sold my shares this morning. I bought them back again but I lost about $350 along the way. Not as much as my first but I still think of this as a significant loss.

I find that I need more confidence in myself after I've finished my analysis. Especially since I'm able to see how things are going to work once Blackberry starts to release some of their projects that they're currently working on. It's also clear that Blackberry is no longer losing money like it had been before John Chen took the reins. So their bases are fairly covered at this moment.

Next is the "Internet of Things". What this does is pretty much connect a lot of things together to help improve our lifestyles for the better. Which is part of the reason for Blackberry's partnership with Nanohealth. This next bit is actually an assumption on my part but I see Blackberry doing more than just improving health with the "Internet of Things". I can see them connecting everything together. Like making sure you're not drunk when you get into your car. Or monitoring your heart rate when you're out for a jog (rumour says that iWatch will do this so it's not an impossibility). Or calling for emergency services if you get hurt badly enough.

Still...Blackberry is only set to go up. So the only reason for me to sell them this morning was due to fear. It wasn't cutting my losses as I'm still up $2000 for the year from some profit-taking earlier. It was hiding due to fears instilled by people that only see Blackberry as a maker of phones. Well...I hope I won't be doing that again. And I expect Blackberry to bounce back and go above $15 US a share in the next few months.