Thursday, 22 January 2015

An update on my trading activities

Since the time I had made a trading journal at Big Mike's Trading Forum (elite membership here is one of my better investments), I had lost about $1000 in USD after my initial $4100 investment. But I stuck to the system (partially in thanks to the journal) and ended up recovering my losses. My current situation is that I'm above $5k USD after fine tuning the buy and sell signals. So far it's been good. Now to just keep it flowing.

Friday, 7 November 2014

Trading Journal

I decided to start a trading journal at Big Mike's trading forum. The people there have always been amazing and they have experience that I know I lack. Not to mention that I feel that I'll be more careful with my trades if there's a chance of it being scrutinized. With that said, I won't be updating here as much other than maybe end of the month reports to keep track on a monthly basis on how I'm doing. Here's to hoping to win enough to make up for my losses.

Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Some of the new trades

I decided to sell my calls on BBRY today. They were starting to trend down and I would rather use that money to make more instead of leaving it locked in. Took a bit of a loss but I saved most of it enough and decided to buy some short term puts in BBRY instead to try and take some profit on the downward trend that it's going in. Sent an order to buy BBRY puts at a strike price of $10 set to expire on December 5th. Decided to try to get 15 contracts for $0.52 each. Order hasn't gone through at the time of this entry but it's close enough to the ask price that I expect it to go through before the end of the day.

Another trade that went in was for SCON. I wasn't expecting this to go through since the ask price was going for $0.40 while the last bid was $0.15 and I was asking for $0.20. But it went through and the direction of the trend for SCON seems to be going up. So I managed to buy 20 contracts for $3.00 calls to expire in January 2015. I'm not too thrilled at the amount of liquidity in this options play but it might make a nice amount of gain still I think if the trend continues upwards. Resistance for the share price for this seems to be at $3.10. ER next week might allow it to break through it if the trend continues and they report a positive EPS. Their trend in the EPS has slowly been going up from $-0.42 to $-0.21 -> $-0.25 -> $0. While I shouldn't be making predictions, I can't help but predict that their next EPS will be in the $0.05 to $-0.05 range.

Third trade that went through was calls in ALU at a strike price of $3.00. I bought 30 contracts at $0.50 each and they're set to expire in March 2015. That gives me about 2 ERs to work with and their trend has also been going up lately. A lot of their R&D seems to be bearing fruit for this company but time will tell how well it does. Predictions from other people are that it will be around $4.00 by the end of the year. If it actually hits that, my investment in this will double so not too bad a deal for holding onto it for 2 months I guess.

Decided to hold off on selling my NOK contracts yesterday. But I'll be keeping a closer eye on it since it's going sideways right now and can go either up or down soon. Unlike the BBRY contracts which were out of the money, the NOK contracts are still in the money so I might sit on them for a while until closer to expiration date. Really depends on if the trend starts moving down obviously or not though.

Monday, 3 November 2014

Small but unexpected gain

There was a quick upward move in IRDM today that took it above the $10 mark. What this did to my position in IRDM was made me take profits in IRDM. I had made an order to sell my 26 contracts in IRDM to sell at $0.50 a contract and due to the move above $10, it was bought rather quickly. This caused me to gain some profit since I had bought the contracts at an average price of $0.34 per contract. I'm glad I made a small profit in it and while a part of me is tempted to take a position in it back, I think I will stay out of it. It's really not a good play for options as the interest in the stock is fairly low. What this does it make it harder to sell my contracts if the stock wasn't doing as well. I might put an order to buy $10 calls again but it will be at a small amount of contracts. Of course I'll also ask for a lower price on them and see if that goes through.

New positions to consider are to buy puts in INVN or HLF. HLF did fairly bad in their ER and seems to be losing ground now. INVN looks to be on a downtrend as well. Another possibility is also put options in S which also didn't fare too well in their recent ER. I'll need to check on interest and such first though I think.

Saturday, 1 November 2014

Time for an update!

Again a bit overdue but now's a good time as any I guess for an update. As of last post, which was a big fail on my part, I've learned some valuable lessons. One of which is the following: JUST FOLLOW THE BL**DY TREND. I clearly did not follow that rule with the gamble I took. But it was a valuable lesson.

So...I decided to get back into trading. I took out a small loan for it this time. And because I kept ignoring the trend at first, I'm not up as much as I could've been but I followed it enough to have broken even so far. My current positions are in BBRY, IRDM, and NOK as they're currently all on an upward trend. NOK seems to be starting to head sideways though so I think I'll take the small profit I made there now. I think I will also try and sell IRDM off early with small profits if I can as liquidity seems low in it. Right now, I'm mostly waiting to see how the ER for HLF is going to be to see if I should go long or short with them. Another new contender to consider is BONA and ALU, which RussetB from Seeking Alpha mentioned to me. They both seem to be on an uptrend as well. Also keeping an eye on AAPL and WPRT if I get time or make enough to get in on.

Key thing is to try for profit. I'm also focusing on discipline side now a bit more since I've been a bit impatient with my earlier trades. I'm sticking a 3 month time frame for most of my trades except obvious very-short term moves due to moves from ER releases.

Tuesday, 30 September 2014

I've made a mistake...

Looks like I made a mistake in my analysis on BBRY. I let myself get carried away by the hopes that many were placing on it and misread the direction of the trend. Which was/is actually going sideways right now. My own earlier analysis didn't show BBRY hitting $15 until after January. But I got greedy and let myself get caught up in the flow of people pumping the stock up and thought it would go up to $15 after this last ER. As such, I had bought too many contracts at a price target that it likely won't hit and killed off my capital.

Since I didn't mind losing the money I had invested to begin with, I am going to continue to hold them and sell them off between the 8th of October and the 10th of October. Chances are, I'll be taking a heavy loss though. Of course if the price doesn't stay above $10 per share, I will be losing ALL my investment.

I think I will add a new rule. Once I've set my position and the time frame for it, keep it unless I lose a certain % of it. Going to set that % loss to 15%...of the options contracts I buy.

Thursday, 25 September 2014

Breaking my rules

I know I said I would follow my rules and had set my exit point in BBRY to be $10 a share. But I will be breaking it at this point. The Earnings Report is tomorrow and due to the market sentiment on Blackberry out there, there have been two analysts who downgraded their rating. I feel that the drop in price is partially due to the downgrade that people seem to refuse to read or think about carefully. Another part are people hedging their positions on the short side if the ER is bad. And a third part is that the market as a whole was down today. So due to the many contributing factors based on empty news, the price of BBRY dropped just a bit below my $10 exit point.

I decided that since my analysis said that the price will go up after this ER, which information tells me will be a positive one, that I will wait until the ER tomorrow at 8:00 am before taking any set action. Because if the ER is negative like people shorting the stock think, it will be better for me to switch sides and jump onto the short side to make a profit.

I have a feeling that I will be learning a valuable lesson here. I get the feeling that people only read part of what happens and then act without understanding the action fully. In my eyes, if an analyst had given a stock a Buy rating when it was trading at $8-9 a share and has a price target of $11.50 and then changes it to Market Perform when it's trading close to $11 a share, it simply means that the stock is performing as the analyst thinks it should. Unfortunately, people tend to be lazy when reading and react only to the word "downgrade" and sell their position too early. I can't really blame them based on Blackberry's past performance. But doing it this close to the earnings report I think is folly. But I guess I'll see tomorrow how things stand with the company.